Trick or treat?

October served up a few surprises, not all of them so sweet.

Looking back at October's retail news feels a little like tipping out a Halloween trick-or-treat bucket. There's quite an assortment in there, some sweet surprises, a few rather sour ones and some things you're not entirely sure what to make of.

We had consumers organising a supermarket boycott while being encouraged to stock up on emergency supplies. Across the Atlantic, shoppers were spending billions on Halloween celebrations despite all the doom and gloom around consumer confidence. And as the month drew to a close, Christmas was making its presence felt as retailers moved deeper into the Golden Quarter.

It's a strange mix, isn't it? We're worried about affording the essentials, yet apparently happy to spend billions on dressing up. Retailers are predicting record sales while our high streets are getting quieter.

What's going on? Are consumers struggling or simply becoming more selective about where they spend their money? And what does all this tell us about the state of retail?

We're not buying it. Literally.

On 28 October, the aptly named We're Not Buying It campaign encouraged shoppers across the UK to boycott supermarkets for 24 hours, calling for government intervention on the rising cost of essential food.

Now, having grown up in South Africa, I'm used to seeing people come together to protest. It's part of the culture. In Britain, we're rather more inclined to complain about the price of something and then sort of 'keep calm and carry on', so naturally this caught my attention.

But did it achieve anything?

I'm not sure, and I suspect plenty simply moved their weekly shop to another day. There's certainly no evidence yet of a significant impact on supermarket sales, but the fact that people felt strongly enough to organise is interesting.

Food prices remain a source of frustration, and supermarkets have found themselves at the centre of that anger. Of course, grocery pricing is complicated, with suppliers, producers, transport and labour costs all contributing, but consumers see the price at the till.

And they're questioning it.

When consumers start organising rather than simply switching brands, retailers should probably take notice.

The high street is looking rather lonely.

Meanwhile, UK retail footfall fell 4.7% in October, according to the British Retail Consortium and Sensormatic. High streets were down 5.2%, with Wales recording the biggest regional decline at 6.3%.

The weather didn't help, with storms and miserable conditions keeping shoppers at home. But can we keep blaming the weather?

We've been discussing declining footfall for years, and the same issues keep coming up: empty premises, parking, business rates, online competition and changing shopping habits.

What interests me is how much of the conversation focuses on getting shoppers back, rather than asking what we're actually bringing them back for.

I've written before about the high street's social role, the conversations in local shops, the coffee with a friend, the unexpected discovery. Those things matter, even if they're difficult to measure. Retail parks offer convenience, but town centres need to offer something different.

If we want people back on our high streets, we need to give them a reason to be there.

(If you agree or are interesting in our High Street, be sure to check out HighStreetPositives)

A trillion-dollar Christmas. but everyone's worried about money. Huh?

Across the Atlantic, the National Retail Federation forecast that US holiday retail sales would exceed $1 trillion for the first time, reaching an estimated $1.013 trillion.

That's quite a number, particularly when consumer confidence remains fragile and households are concerned about the cost of living.

And October offered another interesting contrast. US consumers were expected to spend $13.5 billion on Halloween, including around $2 billion on adult costumes.

Two billion dollars on adults dressing up. I mean, really. What on earth is going on?
Are consumers struggling or aren't they? Can both be true?

People are watching everyday spending more carefully but still finding money for the occasions that matter to them. Halloween, Christmas, birthdays, holidays. We might complain about grocery prices, switch brands and hunt for promotions, but that does not mean we're prepared to give up the experiences we enjoy.

There's a little of the 'lipstick effect' at play here, that tendency to indulge in smaller luxuries or treats when bigger purchases feel out of reach.

And I think this is where retailers sometimes get consumer behaviour wrong.

We describe people as price-sensitive or cautious, then act surprised when they spend heavily on something they really want.

It's not simply about affordability. It's about what people consider worth paying for.

New faces at the top. Same old challenges?

Through my work with Retail Women in Tech, I've been following some interesting leadership changes across US retail.

At Lululemon, Heidi O'Neill continued reshaping the business following her appointment as CEO, bringing new leadership into product and operations. Devina Foley was appointed Americas President at Net-a-Porter, while Robin Mason took on the role of President of Lifestyle Brands USA at Give Back Beauty.

It's encouraging to see experienced women stepping into these positions, but I'm more interested in what happens next.

Retail leadership is an increasingly difficult job. Consumers are unpredictable, costs are rising, technology is changing everything and investors want results. Preferably yesterday.

We're quick to celebrate appointments and talk about transformation, but how much can a new leader achieve if the organisation itself doesn't change?

Lululemon is restructuring how its product, brand and operations teams work together, which suggests the business recognises that a new CEO alone isn't the answer.

Meanwhile, Kroger announced plans to cut approximately 3,000 corporate roles over three years as part of its own transformation programme.

Three. Thousand. Jobs. That's A LOT of people.

The company wants to "simplify operations, remove duplication and redirect investment towards stores and lower prices". Commercially, there's a reasonable argument, but what happens to the expertise that disappears, and how much additional responsibility lands on those who remain?

Transformation is easy to announce. Making it work is another matter entirely.

And the people expected to deliver it aren't always the ones making the decisions.

So, tricks or treats?

October certainly gave us plenty to think about, but what interests me is the gap between what the numbers tell us and what's actually happening in people's lives.

A trillion dollars in Christmas sales sounds wonderful, but it doesn't mean consumers feel flush. Lower headcount might improve margins, but it doesn't automatically create a better business. And blaming the weather for declining footfall doesn't answer why people aren't particularly enthusiastic about visiting town centres.

There's a lot happening in retail, but are we always asking the right questions?

Something else struck me looking back over October. In my summer roundup, I deliberately gave AI a holiday because I was frankly tired of writing about it every month. Yet here we are again, with more than enough to talk about without it.

There's an awful lot happening on the people side of retail right now, from changing consumer behaviour and the future of our high streets to leadership and the people navigating yet another round of transformation.

Maybe that's where we should be paying a little more attention.

Now, where did I put those emergency tins of beans?